5 sectors to drive estimated GDP growth of 5.6% in FY2019-20

CAIRO – 4 June 2019: The GDP is expected to hit LE6 trillion ($358 billion) in the FY2019-2020, achieving a 5.6 percent growth driven mainly by five industries.

In the expected GDP growth, manufacturing will account for LE984.9 billion; wholesale and retail will allocate LE814.6 billion; petroleum production will be worth LE773.7 billion; agriculture, forestry, and fisheries will be worth LE676.3 billion; and real estate purchases will be worth LE441.2 billion.

Egypt issues 2019/20 preliminary budget

CAIRO – 1 April 2019: The Ministry of Finance issued the 2019/2020 preliminary budget draft and the Parliament will receive the draft at least 90 days before the start of the fiscal year on July 1 to have it signed into law by the end of June.

In April, the World Bank estimated that Egypt will achieve a growth rate of 5.5 percent in 2019, marking the second highest growth rate in the Middle East and North Africa region behind Djibouti, which tops the forecasts by 7 percent.

Egypt’s economic outlook in World Bank’s report

CAIRO – 10 April 2019: The World Bank issued earlier in April a report about the economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region including Egypt.

In a report about the economic outlook for the MENA region, the bank foresaw Egypt’s growth rate to hit 5.8 percent in 2020 and increase to 6 percent in 2021.

Moody’s expectations of Egyptian economy’s indicators in 2019/20

CAIRO – 29 April 2019: Earlier in April, Moody’s Rating Agency published its expectations for the indicators of the Egyptian economy during fiscal year 2019/2020, days after the Ministry of Finance issued the next year’s preliminary budget draft. Egypt Today reviews the expectations of the rating agency.

The value of GDP growth in the first half of the current fiscal year is 5.4 percent against 5.2 percent in the first half of the last fiscal year. The figure for the third quarter of the fiscal year is 5.6 percent from 5.4 percent. The anticipated growth rate for the fourth quarter is 5.8 percent.

In the second quarter of FY2017-2018, the GDP recorded LE383.3 billion with an increase worth LE 240 billion up from LE143.3 billion. The highest contribution to the growth came from the construction sector which achieved revenues of LE 59.8 billion, increasing by 8.9 percent from LE 54.9 billion.

The hospitality and culinary sectors grew to record revenues worth LE26.8 billion from LE23.6 billion. The revenues of the manufacturing sector hit LE164.8 billion, increasing by LE4.1 billion. The agricultural sector achieved LE91.8 billion of revenues, compared to LE88.7 billion with an increase of 3.5 percent. The service sector revenues hit LE 43.9 billion against LE 42.4 billion.

In FY 2017-2018, the GDP grew by 5.4 percent. The state targets to achieve a GDP growth worth 8 percent by FY2021-2022. The medium-term development plan (FY2018-2019 – FY2021-2022), approved by the House of Representatives in 2018, maintains that there are four main sectors contributing to growth.

Those are petroleum production, manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade sectors. They were estimated to represent 67 percent of the growth achieved in FY2018-2019. The plan forecast that all those sectors will keep leading growth except for petroleum production.

The share of manufacturing is estimated to grow to 23 percent from 20 percent. The share of construction is expected to grow 21.7 percent against 19.6 percent. The share of wholesale and retail trade is estimated to hit 13.2 percent compared to 10.4 percent.