Chevron may sweeten offer for Anadarko after rival Occidental bid

Several other analysts immediately questioned the wisdom of Occidental entering a bidding war with Chevron, and most see the latter emerging as the winner. But that does not mean Chevron won’t have to pay up to claim its prize.

Molchanov sees Chevron ultimately taking control of Anadarko, but he says that outcome “suggests that Chevron will try to match or even top Occidental’s bid.” However, he cautioned that the situation is very fluid, and any prediction is essentially a guess at this point.

Paul Sankey, equity analyst at Mizuho Securities, believes Chevron could up its offer by $5 per share, but not much more. Right now, the odds are just as great that Chevron will stick with its original bid on the view that Anadarko shareholders favor its offer, he says.

“We could see a bump, but equally they might just tough this out,” Sankey said in a research note on Wednesday. “Oxy’s bid is by no means a knock out in terms of premium [and] credibility, not certainty given the requirement for a shareholder vote.”

Major Occidental shareholders are currently indicating they will not back the bid, according to Sankey.