China and India will remain defiant against US

Imaginechina | AP Images

Tugboats dock the oil tanker “Daniel” carrying crude oil imported from Iran at the Port of Zhoushan in Zhoushan city, east China’s Zhejiang province, 8 March 2018. 

China and India are both unlikely to completely cut off Iranian crude imports, energy analysts have said, despite the imminent threat of U.S. sanctions.

President Donald Trump‘s administration announced Monday that buyers of Iranian oil must stop purchases by May 1 or face sanctions.

The move, which took many market participants by surprise, ends six months of waivers which had allowed Iran’s eight biggest buyers of crude to continue to import limited volumes.

International benchmark Brent crude traded at $74.26 Tuesday afternoon, up around 0.3%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $65.93, almost 0.6% higher.

“Iranian exports will not actually reach zero,” analysts at Eurasia Group said in a research note published Monday.

“China, which imports approximately 500,000 bpd (barrels per day), will make considerable cuts in the near term. For Beijing, securing the trade agreement with the U.S. is the top priority, and China will not link Iran oil imports to the trade talks.”