Market conditions make it almost impossible to forecast

Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images

A worker on a an oil drill near New Town, North Dakota.

A flurry of intensifying risks in the energy market has made it “virtually impossible” to confidently forecast the price of oil, industry experts told CNBC on Thursday.

Oil prices have soared since the start of the year, due to a number of risk factors such as OPEC-led supply cuts, U.S. sanctions on oil exporters Iran and Venezuela and escalating fighting in Libya.

But, alongside mounting concerns about the health of the global economy, surging U.S. crude inventories appears to have capped further gains.

“There are so many uncertainties surrounding the oil market that it makes it virtually impossible to predict developments for the rest of the week let alone for months or a year ahead,” Tamas Varga, senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said in a research note published Thursday.

“There are economic and geopolitical developments to deal with and these can change almost on a daily basis,” Varga said. He described oil market conditions at present as a “forecasting nightmare.”

International benchmark Brent crude traded at around $71.15 Thursday afternoon, down 0.8%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $64.05, around 0.9% lower.

Brent and WTI crude futures have risen by approximately 30% and 40% respectively since the start of the year.