Oil jumps another 12% a day after its best day on record as traders expect big production cuts

Oil prices surged again on Friday on the hope that a production cut deal will soon be reached after OPEC and its allies announced they will meet on Monday, and after Russian producers said they are ready for cuts in a bid to stop the price rout, according to a report from Reuters.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude jumped 12% to trade at $28.50 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent rose 15% to trade at $34.44 per barrel. WTI is up 30% for the week, putting it on track for its best week in history.

When OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, meet on Monday production cuts equivalent to about 10% of global supply will be discussed, according to a report from Reuters citing a source familiar with the matter.

On Thursday WTI and Brent posted their best day on record after President Donald Trump told CNBC that he expected Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to announce a deal to cut oil production by 10 million to 15 million barrels, although the exact details of the cut remained unclear.

WTI gained 24.67% to settle at $25.32, while Brent rose 21% to settle at $29.94. 

But some have questioned whether a cut of the magnitude Trump is suggesting is possible, especially if the U.S. doesn’t participate. According to a report from Reuters, the administration does not intend to ask U.S. companies to scale back production.

“President Trump might have been shooting from the hip when he Tweeted about oil yesterday, promoting the idea of a deal too early on negotiations of high complexity that need more time to blossom,” Rystad Energy’s head of oil markets Bjornar Tonhaugen said in an email.

Outlining what could possibly come next, Eurasia Group’s Ayham Kamel said the most likely path forward is a “large OPEC+ supply cut that is complimented by a U.S. cut.” Alternatively, he noted that talks could conclude with no deal. The least likely outcome of all is OPEC+ cuts without some form of U.S. participation. 

“Even if OPEC+ producers reach such an agreement [without participation from the U.S.], the volume of cuts would be much more limited and below 10 million barrels per day,” Kamel wrote in a note to clients.

Despite Thursday’s jump, WTI is still down more than 40% during the last month.

Demand has evaporated as the coronavirus outbreak has halted travel worldwide and slowed business activity, just as a price war broke out between powerhouse producers Saudi Arabia and Russia.

In March OPEC de facto leader Saudi Arabia recommended cutting production by 1.5 million barrels per day as the pandemic slowed demand. But OPEC ally Russia rejected the proposal, sparking the price war.

On Wednesday Saudi Arabia ramped up its production to a record high of more than 12 million barrels per day, after previous OPEC+ production cuts expired at the end of March.

As oil prices cratered — WTI is coming off its worst month and quarter in history — the U.S. sought to intervene.

U.S. producers have been among the hardest hit as companies struggle to break even with depressed oil prices. On Wednesday, Whiting Petroleum became the first major U.S. shale producer to declare bankruptcy. On Friday, executives from at least seven U.S. energy giants including Exxon and Chevron will meet with Trump at the White House to discuss energy policy.

“Both Riyadh and Moscow will also be looking for participation from US producers, and this may prove now to be the biggest obstacle to an agreement,” said RBC’s head of global commodity strategy Helima Croft.